Science. 1985 Aug 30;229(4716):857-9. doi: 10.1126/science.229.4716.857.
The factors that determine climate response times were investigated with simple models and scaling statements. The response times are particularly sensitive to (i) the amount that the climate response is amplified by feedbacks and (ii) the representation of ocean mixing. If equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3 degrees C or greater for a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration, then most of the expected warming attributable to trace gases added to the atmosphere by man probably has not yet occurred. This yet to be realized warming calls into question a policy of "wait and see" regarding the issue of how to deal with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases.
利用简单模型和定标陈述对决定气候响应时间的因素进行了研究。响应时间对以下两个方面特别敏感：(i) 气候响应通过反馈放大的程度，以及 (ii) 海洋混合的表示。如果二氧化碳浓度加倍导致的平衡气候敏感性为 3°C 或更高，那么归因于人类向大气中添加的痕量气体的大部分预期变暖可能尚未发生。这种尚未实现的变暖使得如何处理不断增加的大气二氧化碳和其他痕量气体这一问题上的“观望”政策受到质疑。
