Broecker W S, Takahashi T, Simpson H J, Peng T H
Science. 1979 Oct 26;206(4417):409-18. doi: 10.1126/science.206.4417.409.
The fate of fossil fuel carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere depends on the exchange rates of carbon between the atmosphere and three major carbon reservoirs, namely, the oceans, shallow-water sediments, and the terrestrial biosphere. Various assumptions and models used to estimate the global carbon budget for the last 20 years are reviewed and evaluated. Several versions of recent atmosphere-ocean models appear to give reliable and mutually consistent estimates for carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans. On the other hand, there is no compelling evidence which establishes that the terrestrial biomass has decreased at a rate comparable to that of fossil fuel combustion over the last two decades, as has been recently claimed.
排放到大气中的化石燃料二氧化碳的命运取决于大气与三个主要碳库（即海洋、浅水沉积物和陆地生物圈）之间的碳交换速率。本文回顾并评估了过去20年用于估算全球碳预算的各种假设和模型。最近的几个大气-海洋模型版本似乎能给出关于海洋吸收二氧化碳的可靠且相互一致的估算。另一方面，没有确凿证据能证明，如最近有人声称的那样，在过去二十年里陆地生物量以与化石燃料燃烧速率相当的速度减少。
