Berry Donald A
Department of Biostatistics, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.
Pharm Stat. 2007 Jul-Sep;6(3):155-60. doi: 10.1002/pst.303.
Multiplicities are ubiquitous. They threaten every inference in every aspect of life. Despite the focus in statistics on multiplicities, statisticians underestimate their importance. One reason is that the focus is on methodology for known multiplicities. Silent multiplicities are much more important and they are insidious. Both frequentists and Bayesians have important contributions to make regarding problems of multiplicities. But neither group has an inside track. Frequentists and Bayesians working together is a promising way of making inroads into this knotty set of problems. Two experiments with identical results may well lead to very different statistical conclusions. So we will never be able to use a software package with default settings to resolve all problems of multiplicities. Every problem has unique aspects. And all problems require understanding the substantive area of application.
多重性无处不在。它们威胁着生活方方面面的每一项推断。尽管统计学中对多重性颇为关注，但统计学家低估了其重要性。一个原因是关注的是针对已知多重性的方法。隐性多重性更为重要且具有隐蔽性。在多重性问题上，频率论者和贝叶斯论者都能做出重要贡献。但这两个群体都没有捷径可走。频率论者和贝叶斯论者携手合作是攻克这一棘手问题集的一种很有前景的方式。两个结果相同的实验很可能会得出截然不同的统计结论。所以我们永远无法使用默认设置的软件包来解决所有多重性问题。每个问题都有其独特之处。而且所有问题都需要理解应用的实质领域。
