Rzehak Peter, Schoefer Yvonne, Wichmann H-Erich, Heinrich Joachim
GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Institute of Epidemiology, Ingolstaedter Landstrasse 1, Neuherberg, Germany.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2008;23(1):17-22. doi: 10.1007/s10654-007-9205-3. Epub 2007 Nov 6.
Aim of this study was to examine the effect of hay fever in childhood for asthma onset from childhood to adulthood in a prospective cohort of 3,199 asthma-free children, initially aged 5-13 years, which were followed for up to 12 years in East-Germany.
Crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) of asthma onset due to hay fever at baseline were calculated by a generalized estimation equation approach accounting for person years at risk, age at study entry, parental asthma, and gender.
Overall 142 incident cases of asthma were observed. Prevalence of hay fever at baseline was 4%. Crude and adjusted IRR were essentially the same and showed overall and in each age group a substantial higher risk of asthma onset due to hay fever. The adjusted IRR was 4 overall and ranged between 3 and 5 within the three age groups. Restricting the analysis to those participants, who were 17-25 years of age at the end of follow-up resulted in similar IRR.
Hay fever in childhood is a strong predictor of asthma onset later in life up to adulthood. The preventive potential of early and efficient treatment of allergic rhinitis to avoid asthma development needs to be investigated.
本研究的目的是在东德对3199名无哮喘儿童（初始年龄为5 - 13岁）进行长达12年的前瞻性队列研究，以检验儿童期花粉症对从儿童期到成年期哮喘发病的影响。
采用广义估计方程法，考虑风险人年、研究入组时的年龄、父母哮喘情况和性别，计算基线时因花粉症导致哮喘发病的粗发病率和调整发病率比（IRR）。
共观察到142例哮喘发病病例。基线时花粉症患病率为4%。粗发病率和调整发病率比基本相同，总体以及各年龄组均显示因花粉症导致哮喘发病的风险显著更高。调整后的发病率比总体为4，在三个年龄组中介于3至5之间。将分析局限于随访结束时年龄为17 - 25岁的参与者，得到了相似的发病率比。
儿童期花粉症是成年期后期哮喘发病的有力预测指标。需要研究早期有效治疗过敏性鼻炎以避免哮喘发生的预防潜力。
