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疾病对繁殖的影响会在季节性环境中导致种群数量的周期性变化。

Disease effects on reproduction can cause population cycles in seasonal environments.

作者信息

Smith Matthew J, White Andrew, Sherratt Jonathan A, Telfer Sandra, Begon Michael, Lambin Xavier

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK.

出版信息

J Anim Ecol. 2008 Mar;77(2):378-89. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01328.x. Epub 2007 Nov 13.

Abstract
  1. Recent studies of rodent populations have demonstrated that certain parasites can cause juveniles to delay maturation until the next reproductive season. Furthermore, a variety of parasites may share the same host, and evidence is beginning to accumulate showing nonindependent effects of different infections. 2. We investigated the consequences for host population dynamics of a disease-induced period of no reproduction, and a chronic reduction in fecundity following recovery from infection (such as may be induced by secondary infections) using a modified SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model. We also included a seasonally varying birth rate as recent studies have demonstrated that seasonally varying parameters can have important effects on long-term host-parasite dynamics. We investigated the model predictions using parameters derived from five different cyclic rodent populations. 3. Delayed and reduced fecundity following recovery from infection have no effect on the ability of the disease to regulate the host population in the model as they have no effect on the basic reproductive rate. However, these factors can influence the long-term dynamics including whether or not they exhibit multiyear cycles. 4. The model predicts disease-induced multiyear cycles for a wide range of realistic parameter values. Host populations that recover relatively slowly following a disease-induced population crash are more likely to show multiyear cycles. Diseases for which the period of infection is brief, but full recovery of reproductive function is relatively slow, could generate large amplitude multiyear cycles of several years in length. Chronically reduced fecundity following recovery can also induce multiyear cycles, in support of previous theoretical studies. 5. When parameterized for cowpox virus in the cyclic field vole populations (Microtus agrestis) of Kielder Forest (northern England), the model predicts that the disease must chronically reduce host fecundity by more than 70%, following recovery from infection, for it to induce multiyear cycles. When the model predicts quasi-periodic multiyear cycles it also predicts that seroprevalence and the effective date of onset of the reproductive season are delayed density-dependent, two phenomena that have been recorded in the field.
摘要
  1. 近期对啮齿动物种群的研究表明,某些寄生虫可导致幼体延迟成熟至下一个繁殖季节。此外,多种寄生虫可能寄生于同一宿主,且越来越多的证据表明不同感染之间存在非独立效应。2. 我们使用改良的SIR(易感、感染、恢复)模型,研究了疾病导致的无繁殖期以及感染恢复后繁殖力长期下降(如可能由二次感染引起)对宿主种群动态的影响。我们还纳入了随季节变化的出生率,因为近期研究表明,随季节变化的参数会对宿主 - 寄生虫的长期动态产生重要影响。我们使用从五个不同的周期性啮齿动物种群得出的参数来研究模型预测结果。3. 感染恢复后繁殖力延迟和下降对疾病在模型中调节宿主种群的能力没有影响,因为它们对基本繁殖率没有影响。然而,这些因素会影响长期动态,包括宿主种群是否呈现多年周期。4. 该模型预测,对于广泛的现实参数值,疾病会导致多年周期。在疾病导致种群数量骤减后恢复相对缓慢的宿主种群更有可能呈现多年周期。感染期短暂但繁殖功能完全恢复相对缓慢的疾病,可能会产生长达数年的大幅度多年周期。感染恢复后繁殖力长期下降也可引发多年周期,这支持了先前的理论研究。5. 当针对基尔德森林(英格兰北部)周期性田鼠种群(黑线姬鼠)中的牛痘病毒进行参数化时,该模型预测,疾病在感染恢复后必须使宿主繁殖力长期降低超过70%,才能引发多年周期。当模型预测准周期性多年周期时,它还预测血清阳性率和繁殖季节的有效开始日期会延迟且依赖于种群密度,这两种现象已在野外观察到。

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