Hauben Manfred, Reich Lester, Gerrits Charles M, Madigan David
Risk Management Strategy, Pfizer Inc, New York, NY 10017, USA.
Drug Saf. 2007;30(12):1143-9. doi: 10.2165/00002018-200730120-00006.
A population-based analysis has suggested that the publication of the RALES (Randomized Aldactone Evaluation Study) in late 1999 was associated with both the wider use of spironolactone to treat heart failure and a corresponding increase in hyperkalaemia-associated morbidity and mortality in patients also being treated with ACE inhibitors.
To gain further insight into the reporting of spironolactone-associated hyperkalaemia in an independent dataset by analysing the spontaneous reporting experience in relation to the publication of RALES, and to determine whether the implementation of a commonly used data mining algorithm (DMA) might have directed the attention of safety reviewers to the spironolactone/hyperkalaemia association in advance of epidemiological findings.
We calculated the reporting rate of spironolactone-associated hyperkalaemia per 1,000 reports per year from 1970 through to the end of 2005 by identifying relevant cases in the US FDA Adverse Event Reporting System. We did this for reports of spironolactone-associated hyperkalaemia (where spironolactone was listed as a suspect drug) and according to whether the reports listed an ACE inhibitor as a co-suspect or concomitant medication. A further statistical analysis of the overall reporting of spironolactone (suspect drug)-associated hyperkalaemia was also performed. We also performed 3-dimensional (3-D; drug-drug-event) disproportionality analyses using a DMA known as the multi-item gamma-Poisson shrinker, which allows the calculation and display of a 3-D disproportionality metric known as the 'interaction signal score' (INTSS). This metric is a measure of the strength of a higher order reporting relationship of a triplet (i.e. drug-drug-event) association above and beyond what would be expected from the largest disproportionalities associated with the individual 2-way associations.
Visual inspection of a graph of the reporting frequency of spironolactone (suspect drug)-associated hyperkalaemia per 1,000 reports was highly suggestive of a change point. The t-test on the arcsine-transformed data showed a significant difference in reporting of spironolactone-hyperkalaemia combination through 1999 compared with 2000 onwards (p < 0.001). When examining the reporting time trends according to the presence or absence of an ACE inhibitor, the change point seemed to be mostly attributable to an increase in the number of spironolactone (suspect drug)-associated hyperkalaemia reports with ACE inhibitors listed as a co-suspect drug. No obvious change points in INTSSs for spironolactone-ACE inhibitor-hyperkalaemia reports were observed.
Although we could not pinpoint the relative contribution of many possible artifacts in the reporting process, as well as increased drug exposure, increased adverse event incidence and/or a change in patient monitoring practices, to our findings, we observed a notable change in reporting frequency of spironolactone-associated hyperkalaemia in temporal proximity to the publication of RALES. Evidence of this was provided by a trend analysis depicted in a simple graph that was supported by statistical analysis. The observed trend was in large part due to increased reporting of spironolactone-associated hyperkalaemia with reported co-medication with ACE inhibitors.
These findings are consistent with those originally reported in an epidemiological analysis. In this retrospective exercise, a simple graph was more illuminating than more complex data mining analyses.
一项基于人群的分析表明,1999年末《随机螺内酯评估研究》(RALES)的发表与螺内酯在治疗心力衰竭方面的更广泛应用以及在同时接受ACE抑制剂治疗的患者中高钾血症相关发病率和死亡率的相应增加有关。
通过分析与RALES发表相关的自发报告经验,进一步深入了解独立数据集中螺内酯相关高钾血症的报告情况,并确定实施一种常用的数据挖掘算法(DMA)是否可能在流行病学研究结果之前就将安全审查员的注意力引向螺内酯/高钾血症的关联。
我们通过在美国食品药品监督管理局不良事件报告系统中识别相关病例,计算了1970年至2005年末每年每1000份报告中螺内酯相关高钾血症的报告率。我们针对螺内酯相关高钾血症的报告(其中螺内酯被列为可疑药物)进行了此项计算,并根据报告中是否将ACE抑制剂列为共同可疑药物或伴随用药进行了分类。我们还对螺内酯(可疑药物)相关高钾血症的总体报告进行了进一步的统计分析。我们还使用一种称为多项目伽马 - 泊松收缩器的DMA进行了三维(3 - D;药物 - 药物 - 事件)不成比例分析,该分析允许计算和显示一种称为“相互作用信号得分”(INTSS)的三维不成比例度量。该度量衡量的是三元组(即药物 - 药物 - 事件)关联的高阶报告关系的强度,超出了与各个双向关联相关的最大不成比例情况所预期的强度。
对每1000份报告中螺内酯(可疑药物)相关高钾血症报告频率的图表进行目视检查,强烈提示存在一个变化点。对反正弦变换后的数据进行t检验显示,与2000年及以后相比,1999年全年螺内酯 - 高钾血症组合的报告存在显著差异(p < 0.001)。在根据是否存在ACE抑制剂检查报告时间趋势时,变化点似乎主要归因于将ACE抑制剂列为共同可疑药物的螺内酯(可疑药物)相关高钾血症报告数量的增加。未观察到螺内酯 - ACE抑制剂 - 高钾血症报告的INTSS有明显变化点。
尽管我们无法确定报告过程中许多可能的人为因素以及药物暴露增加、不良事件发生率增加和/或患者监测实践变化对我们研究结果的相对贡献,但我们观察到在RALES发表前后,螺内酯相关高钾血症的报告频率有显著变化。一个简单图表中的趋势分析提供了这方面的证据,该分析得到了统计分析的支持。观察到的趋势在很大程度上是由于报告的螺内酯相关高钾血症且同时报告使用ACE抑制剂的情况增加。
这些发现与最初在一项流行病学分析中报告的结果一致。在这项回顾性研究中,一个简单的图表比更复杂的数据挖掘分析更具启发性。