Lepage Côme, Remontet Laurent, Launoy Guy, Trétarre Brigitte, Grosclaude Pascale, Colonna Marc, Velten Michel, Buemi Antoine, Danzon Arlette, Molinie Florence, Maarouf Nabil, Bossard Nadine, Bouvier Anne-Marie, Faivre Jean
Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy, INSERM EMI 106, CHU Dijon, France.
Eur J Cancer Prev. 2008 Feb;17(1):13-7. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0b013e32809b4cba.
The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the incidence of digestive cancers in France. Observed incidence and mortality data in the population covered by cancer registries were modelled using age-cohort models. An estimation of the incidence/mortality ratio was obtained from these models and was applied to the mortality rates predicted from an age-cohort model for the entire French population. Site-specific standardized-incidence rates by 1-year intervals and cumulative rate 0-74 years by birth cohort were estimated. On average, age-standardized incidence rates of large bowel cancers increased by 1.0% per year in men and 0.8% in women from 1980 to 2000. The estimated cumulative rate increased from 4.0% for men born in 1913 to 4.8% for those born in 1953. The corresponding values in women were 2.5 and 2.9%. The most striking increase in incidence was seen for primary liver cancer with an increase from 2000 incident cases in 1980 to nearly 6000 in 2000. The estimated cumulative rate was 0.5% for men born in 1913 and 2.9% for those born in 1953. The increase in incidence was lower for pancreas cancer. A decrease in the incidence of stomach cancer was observed for both sexes and of oesophageal cancer in men by slightly more than 2%. The study showed large changes in the cancer burden in France between 1980 and 2000.
本研究的目的是分析法国消化系统癌症的发病趋势。利用年龄队列模型对癌症登记所覆盖人群的观察到的发病率和死亡率数据进行建模。从这些模型中得出发病率/死亡率比值的估计值，并将其应用于根据年龄队列模型预测的全法国人口死亡率。按1年间隔估计特定部位的标准化发病率以及按出生队列估计0至74岁的累积发病率。1980年至2000年期间，男性大肠癌的年龄标准化发病率平均每年上升1.0%，女性上升0.8%。估计的累积发病率从1913年出生男性的4.0%上升至1953年出生男性的4.8%。女性的相应数值分别为2.5%和2.9%。原发性肝癌发病率的上升最为显著，从1980年的2000例新增病例增至2000年的近6000例。1913年出生男性的估计累积发病率为0.5%，1953年出生男性为2.9%。胰腺癌发病率的上升幅度较小。观察到男性和女性的胃癌发病率均有所下降，男性食管癌发病率下降略超过2%。该研究表明，1980年至2000年期间法国的癌症负担发生了巨大变化。
