Trends in incidence of digestive cancers in France.

The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the incidence of digestive cancers in France. Observed incidence and mortality data in the population covered by cancer registries were modelled using age-cohort models. An estimation of the incidence/mortality ratio was obtained from these models and was applied to the mortality rates predicted from an age-cohort model for the entire French population. Site-specific standardized-incidence rates by 1-year intervals and cumulative rate 0-74 years by birth cohort were estimated. On average, age-standardized incidence rates of large bowel cancers increased by 1.0% per year in men and 0.8% in women from 1980 to 2000. The estimated cumulative rate increased from 4.0% for men born in 1913 to 4.8% for those born in 1953. The corresponding values in women were 2.5 and 2.9%. The most striking increase in incidence was seen for primary liver cancer with an increase from 2000 incident cases in 1980 to nearly 6000 in 2000. The estimated cumulative rate was 0.5% for men born in 1913 and 2.9% for those born in 1953. The increase in incidence was lower for pancreas cancer. A decrease in the incidence of stomach cancer was observed for both sexes and of oesophageal cancer in men by slightly more than 2%. The study showed large changes in the cancer burden in France between 1980 and 2000.