Lozier M Susan, Leadbetter Susan, Williams Richard G, Roussenov Vassil, Reed Mark S C, Moore Nathan J
Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Science. 2008 Feb 8;319(5864):800-3. doi: 10.1126/science.1146436. Epub 2008 Jan 3.
The total heat gained by the North Atlantic Ocean over the past 50 years is equivalent to a basinwide increase in the flux of heat across the ocean surface of 0.4 +/- 0.05 watts per square meter. We show, however, that this basin has not warmed uniformly: Although the tropics and subtropics have warmed, the subpolar ocean has cooled. These regional differences require local surface heat flux changes (+/-4 watts per square meter) much larger than the basinwide average. Model investigations show that these regional differences can be explained by large-scale, decadal variability in wind and buoyancy forcing as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Whether the overall heat gain is due to anthropogenic warming is difficult to confirm because strong natural variability in this ocean basin is potentially masking such input at the present time.
在过去50年里，北大西洋获得的总热量相当于整个洋盆海洋表面热通量每平方米增加了0.4±0.05瓦。然而，我们发现这个洋盆的变暖并不均匀：虽然热带和亚热带地区已经变暖，但亚极地海洋却变冷了。这些区域差异需要局部表面热通量变化（每平方米±4瓦），这比整个洋盆的平均值要大得多。模型研究表明，这些区域差异可以用北大西洋涛动指数所衡量的风场和浮力强迫的大尺度年代际变化来解释。由于该洋盆强烈的自然变率目前可能掩盖了这种人为变暖的影响，因此很难确定总体热量增加是否是由人为变暖导致的。
