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道路、环境、车辆、碰撞及驾驶员特征对肇事逃逸事故影响的逻辑模型。

A logistic model of the effects of roadway, environmental, vehicle, crash and driver characteristics on hit-and-run crashes.

作者信息

Tay Richard, Rifaat Shakil Mohammad, Chin Hoong Chor

机构信息

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Jul;40(4):1330-6. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.02.003. Epub 2008 Mar 4.

Abstract

Leaving the scene of a crash without reporting it is an offence in most countries and many studies have been devoted to improving ways to identify hit-and-run vehicles and the drivers involved. However, relatively few studies have been conducted on identifying factors that contribute to the decision to run after the crash. This study identifies the factors that are associated with the likelihood of hit-and-run crashes including driver characteristics, vehicle types, crash characteristics, roadway features and environmental characteristics. Using a logistic regression model to delineate hit-and-run crashes from nonhit-and-run crashes, this study found that drivers were more likely to run when crashes occurred at night, on a bridge and flyover, bend, straight road and near shop houses; involved two vehicles, two-wheel vehicles and vehicles from neighboring countries; and when the driver was a male, minority, and aged between 45 and 69. On the other hand, collisions involving right turn and U-turn maneuvers, and occurring on undivided roads were less likely to be hit-and-run crashes.

摘要

在大多数国家,肇事后逃离现场而不报告属于违法行为,并且许多研究致力于改进识别肇事逃逸车辆及相关驾驶员的方法。然而,关于确定导致撞车后决定逃逸的因素的研究相对较少。本研究确定了与肇事逃逸撞车可能性相关的因素,包括驾驶员特征、车辆类型、撞车特征、道路特征和环境特征。通过使用逻辑回归模型来区分肇事逃逸撞车事故和非肇事逃逸撞车事故,本研究发现,当撞车事故发生在夜间、桥梁和天桥、弯道、直道以及商店房屋附近时;涉及两辆车、两轮车以及来自邻国的车辆时;以及当驾驶员为男性、少数族裔且年龄在45至69岁之间时,驾驶员更有可能逃逸。另一方面,涉及右转弯和掉头操作且发生在未分隔道路上的碰撞事故不太可能是肇事逃逸撞车事故。

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