Newell Ben R, Rakow Tim
School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2007 Dec;14(6):1133-9. doi: 10.3758/bf03193102.
We extend research on the distinction between decisions from experience or description to situations in which people are given perfect information about outcome probabilities and have experience in an environment which matches the described information. Participants read a description of a die with more sides of one color than another (e.g., 4 black and 2 white sides) and were then asked either to predict the outcomes of rolls of the die or to select the best strategy for betting on the most likely outcome for each roll in a hypothetical game. Experience in the environment (trials), contingency (probability of the more likely alternative), and outcome feedback all had significant effects on the adoption of the optimal strategy (always predicting the most likely outcome), despite their normative irrelevance. Comparisons of experience with description-only conditions suggested that experience exerted an influence on performance if it was active--making predictions-but not if it was passive-observing outcomes. Experience had a negative initial impact on optimal responding: participants in description-only conditions selected the optimal strategy more often than those with 60 trials of prediction experience, a finding that reflects the seduction of "representative" responding.
人们被给予关于结果概率的完美信息，并且在与所描述信息相匹配的环境中拥有经验。参与者阅读了一个骰子的描述，其中一种颜色的面比另一种颜色的面更多（例如，4个黑色面和2个白色面），然后被要求预测掷骰子的结果，或者在一个假设的游戏中为每次掷骰子最可能出现的结果选择最佳投注策略。尽管从规范角度来看这些因素无关紧要，但环境中的经验（试验次数）、偶然性（更可能出现的结果的概率）和结果反馈都对采用最优策略（总是预测最可能出现的结果）有显著影响。将有经验的情况与仅基于描述的情况进行比较表明，如果经验是主动的——进行预测，那么它会对表现产生影响；但如果经验是被动的——观察结果，那么它就不会产生影响。经验对最优反应有负面的初始影响：仅基于描述的参与者比有60次预测经验的参与者更频繁地选择最优策略，这一发现反映了“代表性”反应的诱惑。
