Lang Anna, Betsch Tilmann
Social, Organizational and Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, University of Erfurt, Erfurt, Germany.
Front Psychol. 2018 Feb 27;9:191. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00191. eCollection 2018.
We investigated whether children prefer feedback over stated probabilistic information in decision making. 6-year-olds', 9-year-olds', and adults' making was examined in an environment where probabilistic information about choice outcome had to be actively searched ( = 166) or was available without search ( = 183). Probabilistic information was provided before choices as predictions of cues differing in validity. The presence of outcome feedback was varied. 6-year-olds, but not 9-year-olds were over-responsive to negative outcomes leading to choices biased by recent feedback. However, children did not systematically utilize feedback in choices. Irrespective of feedback, 6-year-olds fully and 9-year-olds partly neglected stated probabilistic information in their choices. When 6-year-olds chose systematically, they only relied on invalid information, which did not maximize outcomes. 9-year-olds still applied invalid choice rules, but also choice rules based on probability. Results suggest that neglect of probabilities in complex decisions is robust, independent of feedback, and only starts to subside at elementary school age.
我们研究了儿童在决策过程中是否更喜欢反馈而非明确给出的概率信息。在一个环境中，对6岁、9岁儿童和成年人的决策进行了考察，在该环境中，关于选择结果的概率信息要么需要主动搜索（ = 166），要么无需搜索即可获得（ = 183）。概率信息在选择之前作为对有效性不同的线索的预测提供。结果反馈的存在情况有所不同。6岁儿童，而非9岁儿童，对负面结果反应过度，导致选择受到近期反馈的影响而产生偏差。然而，儿童在选择过程中并未系统地利用反馈。无论有无反馈，6岁儿童在选择时完全忽略了明确给出的概率信息，9岁儿童则部分忽略。当6岁儿童进行系统选择时，他们只依赖无效信息，而这些信息并不能使结果最大化。9岁儿童仍然应用无效的选择规则，但也应用基于概率的选择规则。结果表明，在复杂决策中忽略概率这一现象很普遍，与反馈无关，并且直到小学阶段才开始有所缓解。
