Tapia Granados José A, Ionides Edward L
Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations and School of Social Work, University of Michigan, 1111 East Catherine Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2054, United States.
J Health Econ. 2008 May;27(3):544-63. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.09.006. Epub 2007 Nov 29.
Health progress, as measured by the decline in mortality rates and the increase in life expectancy, is usually conceived as related to economic growth, especially in the long run. In this investigation it is shown that economic growth is positively associated with health progress in Sweden throughout the 19th century. However, the relation becomes weaker as time passes and is completely reversed in the second half of the 20th century, when economic growth negatively affects health progress. The effect of the economy on health occurs mostly at lag 0 in the 19th century and is lagged up to 2 years in the 20th century. No evidence is found for economic effects on mortality at greater lags. These findings are shown to be robustly consistent across a variety of statistical procedures, including linear regression, spectral analysis, cross-correlation, and lag regression models. Models using inflation and unemployment as economic indicators reveal similar results. Evidence for reverse effects of health progress on economic growth is weak, and unobservable in the second half of the 20th century.
以死亡率下降和预期寿命增加来衡量的健康进步，通常被认为与经济增长有关，尤其是从长期来看。本研究表明，在整个19世纪，瑞典的经济增长与健康进步呈正相关。然而，随着时间的推移，这种关系变得越来越弱，并在20世纪下半叶完全逆转，此时经济增长对健康进步产生负面影响。经济对健康的影响在19世纪大多出现在滞后0期，而在20世纪则滞后长达2年。没有发现更大滞后情况下经济对死亡率有影响的证据。这些发现在包括线性回归、频谱分析、交叉相关性和滞后回归模型在内的各种统计程序中都表现出稳健的一致性。使用通货膨胀和失业率作为经济指标的模型也显示出类似的结果。健康进步对经济增长产生反向影响的证据很薄弱，在20世纪下半叶无法观察到。
