意大利流感大流行的传播与控制情况
Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy.
作者信息
Rizzo C, Lunelli A, Pugliese A, Bella A, Manfredi P, Tomba G Scalia, Iannelli M, Ciofi degli Atti M L
机构信息
National Centre for Epidemiology Surveillance and Health Promotion, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Dec;136(12):1650-7. doi: 10.1017/S095026880800037X. Epub 2008 Feb 14.
Abstract
To predict the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of control measures, we developed a susceptible-exposed, but not yet infectious-infectious-recovered, and no longer susceptible (SEIR) deterministic model with a stochastic simulation component. We modelled the impact of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and social distancing measures. In the absence of control measures, the epidemic peak would be reached about 4 months after the importation of the first cases in Italy, and the epidemic would last about 7 months. When combined, the control measures would reduce the cumulative attack rate to about 4.2%, at best, although this would require an extremely high number of treated individuals. In accordance with international findings, our results highlight the need to respond to a pandemic with a combination of control measures.
摘要
为预测甲型流感病毒大流行毒株在意大利的传播情况以及防控措施的影响，我们构建了一个包含易感染者-潜伏者（尚未具有传染性）-感染者-康复者（不再易感）（SEIR）的确定性模型，并带有随机模拟部分。我们对疫苗接种、抗病毒预防和社交距离措施等防控手段的影响进行了建模。在没有防控措施的情况下，意大利首例病例输入约4个月后将达到疫情高峰，疫情将持续约7个月。综合来看，防控措施最多可将累计感染率降至约4.2%，不过这需要极高的治疗人数。与国际研究结果一致，我们的研究结果凸显了采用综合防控措施应对大流行的必要性。
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