Krzyzanowski M, Wojtyniak B
Department of Medical Statistics, National Institute of Hygiene, Warsaw, Poland.
Public Health Rev. 1991;19(1-4):73-81.
Several studies indicated that short-term increases in concentration of pollution in the atmosphere of a town may result in increased mortality in the days following the episode. To evaluate this relationship we analyzed data on daily mortality in Cracow, Poland, in the period 1977-1989 and data on daily concentrations of suspended particulates (PM 20) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the town area. This analysis was restricted to winter months. In 1167 winter days, an average of 18.4 deaths of Cracow residents occurred daily. PM 20 concentration exceeded 300 micrograms/m3 in 21%, and SO2 exceeded 200 micrograms/m3 in 19% of those days. The correlation coefficient of the daily number of deaths with the air pollution in the 24 hours preceding the day of death was 0.093 (p < 0.01) for PM 20, and was 0.141 (p < 0.001) for SO2. Similar correlations were found for air pollution levels in the four days preceding death, and the correlation decreased for earlier days. The effects were more pronounced in people over 65 years of age than in those younger, especially in males. After adjustment for SO2 levels, PM 20 had no additional effect on mortality. It was estimated that with an increase of SO2 concentration of 100 micrograms/m3, the daily number of deaths due to respiratory system diseases increased by 19% and deaths due to circulatory system diseases by 10%.
多项研究表明，城镇大气中污染物浓度的短期升高可能会导致在污染事件后的几天内死亡率上升。为了评估这种关系，我们分析了波兰克拉科夫1977年至1989年期间的每日死亡率数据，以及该城镇地区空气中悬浮颗粒物（PM 20）和二氧化硫（SO2）的每日浓度数据。该分析仅限于冬季月份。在1167个冬日里，克拉科夫居民平均每天有18.4人死亡。在这些日子里，21%的日子PM 20浓度超过300微克/立方米，19%的日子SO2浓度超过200微克/立方米。死亡当天前24小时内每日死亡人数与空气污染的相关系数，PM 20为0.093（p < 0.01），SO2为0.141（p < 0.001）。在死亡前四天的空气污染水平也发现了类似的相关性，且随着时间往前推移相关性降低。这种影响在65岁以上人群中比在年轻人中更明显，尤其是男性。在对SO2水平进行调整后，PM 20对死亡率没有额外影响。据估计，SO2浓度每增加100微克/立方米，呼吸系统疾病导致的每日死亡人数增加19%，循环系统疾病导致的死亡人数增加10%。
