Optimal cutoff values for overweight: using body mass index to predict incidence of hypertension in 18- to 65-year-old Chinese adults.

Studies aimed at identifying BMI cutoffs representing increased diseased risk for Asians are typically based on cross-sectional studies. This study determines an optimal BMI cutoff for overweight that represents elevated incidence of hypertension in Chinese adults with data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 2000-2004 prospective cohort. Cumulative incidence was calculated by dividing new cases of hypertension over the study period by the total at-risk population, aged 18-65 y, in 2000. Sex-specific receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess the sensitivity and specificity of BMI as a predictor of hypertension incidence. Four-year cumulative incidences of hypertension (13% for women and 19% for men) were related (P < 0.005) to the increase in BMI. The crude area under the curves (AUC) were 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.65) and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.65) for men and women, respectively; the age-adjusted AUC were 0.68 (95% CI: 0.65-0.70) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.68-0.74) for men and women, respectively. A BMI of 23.5 kg/m(2) for women and 22.5 kg/m(2) for men provided the highest sensitivity and specificity (60%). The finding was consistent in different age groups. A BMI level of 25 kg/m(2) provided lower sensitivities (36% for women and 29% for men) with higher specificities (80% for women and 85% for men). Our study supported the hypothesis that the BMI cutoff to define overweight should be lower in Chinese than that in Western populations.