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适应性网络上的波动流行病。

Fluctuating epidemics on adaptive networks.

作者信息

Shaw Leah B, Schwartz Ira B

机构信息

Department of Applied Science, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia 23187, USA.

出版信息

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2008 Jun;77(6 Pt 2):066101. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.77.066101. Epub 2008 Jun 3.

DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.77.066101
PMID:18643330
Abstract

A model for epidemics on an adaptive network is considered. Nodes follow a susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible pattern. Connections are rewired to break links from noninfected nodes to infected nodes and are reformed to connect to other noninfected nodes, as the nodes that are not infected try to avoid the infection. Monte Carlo simulation and numerical solution of a mean field model are employed. The introduction of rewiring affects both the network structure and the epidemic dynamics. Degree distributions are altered, and the average distance from a node to the nearest infective increases. The rewiring leads to regions of bistability where either an endemic or a disease-free steady state can exist. Fluctuations around the endemic state and the lifetime of the endemic state are considered. The fluctuations are found to exhibit power law behavior.

摘要

考虑了一种自适应网络上的流行病模型。节点遵循易感-感染-康复-易感模式。随着未感染节点试图避免感染,连接会重新布线,以断开从未感染节点到感染节点的链接,并重新形成连接到其他未感染节点的链接。采用了蒙特卡罗模拟和平均场模型的数值解。重新布线的引入既影响网络结构,也影响流行病动力学。度分布发生改变,节点到最近感染节点的平均距离增加。重新布线导致双稳区域的出现,在该区域可能存在地方病或无病稳态。考虑了地方病状态周围的波动以及地方病状态的持续时间。发现这些波动呈现幂律行为。

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