Lee Chris, Abdel-Aty Mohamed
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Windsor, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada.
Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Sep;40(5):1703-12. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.06.006. Epub 2008 Jul 1.
This study examines the impact of passengers on the driver's crash potential on freeways. To estimate the impact, a set of bivariate probit models were developed using the 5-year (1999-2003) crash records on a 36.3-mile stretch of Interstate-4 freeway (I-4) in Orlando, Florida. Bivariate probit models identify the correlation between potentially inter-related choices of three passenger characteristics and three crash characteristics. The analysis using bivariate probit models showed that there exist strong correlations between passenger and crash characteristics. It was found that drivers generally display safer driving behavior when they are accompanied by passengers, and more passengers reduce driver's crash potential. It was also found that younger driver's crash potential increases with the presence of a younger passenger only. In addition, the analysis of crash type using traffic flow parameters at the time of crashes showed that young drivers with only younger passengers are more likely to be involved in single-vehicle crashes in high-speed and low-volume conditions. The findings in this study provide insight into how the presence of passengers has an impact on driver behavior and traffic safety in various conditions.
本研究考察了乘客对高速公路上驾驶员碰撞风险的影响。为评估这种影响，利用佛罗里达州奥兰多市一段36.3英里长的4号州际公路（I - 4）上1999年至2003年这5年的碰撞记录，开发了一组二元概率模型。二元概率模型确定了三个乘客特征和三个碰撞特征之间潜在的相互关联选择的相关性。使用二元概率模型进行的分析表明，乘客特征和碰撞特征之间存在很强的相关性。研究发现，当有乘客陪同驾驶时，驾驶员通常会表现出更安全的驾驶行为，并且乘客越多，驾驶员的碰撞风险越低。还发现，只有在有年轻乘客陪同的情况下，年轻驾驶员的碰撞风险才会增加。此外，利用碰撞发生时的交通流参数对碰撞类型进行分析表明，只有年轻乘客陪同的年轻驾驶员在高速和低流量情况下更有可能发生单车碰撞事故。本研究的结果为了解乘客的存在如何在各种情况下影响驾驶员行为和交通安全提供了见解。
