Johnson Thomas E, Weaver Christopher P
U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.
Environ Manage. 2009 Jan;43(1):118-34. doi: 10.1007/s00267-008-9205-4. Epub 2008 Oct 2.
In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts--linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.
在本文中，我们提出了一个评估气候变化对水体和流域系统影响的框架，以支持管理决策。该框架解决了使气候变化影响评估复杂化的三个问题——跨空间尺度的联系、跨时间尺度的联系以及跨科学和管理学科的联系。该框架的一个主要主题是，由于当前建模能力的限制，评估和应对气候变化应从风险评估和管理的角度进行，而不是作为一个预测问题。该框架总体上基于生态风险评估和类似方法。该框架的另一个主题是气候科学家、关注影响评估的科学家以及资源管理者和决策者之间密切合作的必要性。还介绍了一个说明该框架应用的案例研究，它提供了一个具体、实际的例子，展示了该框架如何用于评估气候变化对美国大西洋中部一个流域水质的影响。
