Environment and Resources Division, Abt Associates Inc., Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 2012 Nov;120(11):1559-64. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1104271. Epub 2012 Jul 12.
Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.
Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices.
Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration-response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O(3))-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration-response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA's 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O(3).
Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O(3)-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects.
Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O(3)-related human health effects resulting from climate change.
未来气候变化可能会通过气候引起的气象、大气化学和排放变化导致空气质量恶化。很少有研究明确地模拟气候变化、空气质量和人类健康之间的潜在关系，更少的研究调查了估计值对基础建模选择的敏感性。
我们的目标是评估气候变化对臭氧相关人类健康影响的估计对关键建模选择的敏感性。
我们的分析包括七个建模系统，其中气候模型与空气质量模型相链接，有五个人口预测，以及多个浓度-反应函数。我们使用美国环境保护署（EPA）的环境效益制图和分析计划（BenMAP），根据每个建模选择组合，估计了美国未来由于模拟气候变化导致的臭氧（O(3)）相关健康影响。健康影响和浓度-反应函数是为了与美国 EPA 2008 年对 O(3)国家环境空气质量标准的监管影响分析中使用的那些相匹配。
不同的方法选择组合产生了一系列全国 O(3)相关死亡率的估计值，从由于气候变化而避免的大约 600 人死亡到归因于气候变化的 2500 人死亡（尽管大多数情况下死亡率增加）。气候变化和空气质量模型的选择反映了最大的不确定性来源，其他建模选择虽然影响较小，但仍有很大影响。
我们的结果强调需要使用集合方法，而不是依赖任何一组建模选择，来评估与气候变化导致的 O(3)相关人类健康影响相关的潜在风险。
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