Olsen A H, Parkin D M, Sasieni P
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Cancer Research UK Centre for Epidemiology, Mathematics and Statistics, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK.
Br J Cancer. 2008 Nov 4;99(9):1549-54. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6604710. Epub 2008 Oct 14.
The purpose of this study was to project mortality rates in the United Kingdom for the period 2006-2025 for 21 major cancers on the basis of the observed trends in mortality rates during 1971-2005, and to estimate the implication in terms of expected deaths. Age-period-cohort models were applied to official statistics. The projected decrease in age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers from 2003 to 2023 was 17% in men and 16% in women. Future mortality rates were projected to decline for most cancer sites. In men, there were small projected increases in mortality rates from cancers of the oral cavity, oesophagus and melanoma, with a larger projected increase (14% over 20 years) in mortality of liver cancer. In women, the only projected increase (18%) was for corpus uteri. The numbers of deaths will increase for most cancers, with a 30% increase in all cancers projected for men and a 12% increase projected for women. Mortality rates from cancer as a whole have been falling in the United Kingdom since 1990, and this decline was projected to continue into the future as well as the declining rates in both sexes for most cancers. Actual numbers of deaths will increase for most cancers.
本研究的目的是根据1971 - 2005年期间观察到的死亡率趋势，预测英国2006 - 2025年期间21种主要癌症的死亡率，并估计预期死亡人数的影响。年龄-时期-队列模型应用于官方统计数据。预计从2003年到2023年，所有癌症的年龄标准化死亡率男性将下降17%，女性将下降16%。预计大多数癌症部位的未来死亡率将下降。在男性中，口腔癌、食管癌和黑色素瘤的死亡率预计将小幅上升，肝癌死亡率预计将大幅上升（20年内上升14%）。在女性中，预计唯一上升的是子宫体癌（上升18%）。大多数癌症的死亡人数将会增加，预计男性所有癌症的死亡人数将增加30%，女性将增加12%。自1990年以来，英国整体癌症死亡率一直在下降，预计这种下降将持续到未来，而且大多数癌症的男女死亡率都在下降。大多数癌症的实际死亡人数将会增加。
