Smittenaar C R, Petersen K A, Stewart K, Moitt N
Analysis & Evaluation, Cancer Research UK, The Angel Building, 407 St John Street, London EC1V 4AD, UK.
Br J Cancer. 2016 Oct 25;115(9):1147-1155. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2016.304. Epub 2016 Oct 11.
Cancer incidence and mortality projections are important for understanding the evolving landscape for cancer risk factors as well as anticipating future burden on the health service.
We used an age-period-cohort model with natural cubic splines to estimate cancer cases and deaths from 2015 to 2035 based on 1979-2014 UK data. This was converted to rates using ONS population projections. Modified data sets were generated for breast and prostate cancers.
Cancer incidence rates are projected to decrease by 0.03% in males and increase by 0.11% in females yearly between 2015 and 2035; thyroid, liver, oral and kidney cancer are among the fastest accelerating cancers. 243 690 female and 270 261 male cancer cases are projected for 2035. Breast and prostate cancers are projected to be the most common cancers among females and males, respectively in 2035. Most cancers' mortality rate is decreasing; there are notable increases for liver, oral and anal cancer. For 2035, there are 95 961 female deaths projected and 116 585 male deaths projected.
These findings stress the need to continue efforts to address cancer risk factors. Furthermore, the increased burden of the number of cancer cases and deaths as a result of the growing and ageing population should be taken into consideration by healthcare planners.
癌症发病率和死亡率预测对于理解癌症风险因素的演变态势以及预测未来卫生服务负担至关重要。
我们使用带有自然三次样条的年龄-时期-队列模型，基于1979 - 2014年英国数据估计2015年至2035年的癌症病例数和死亡数。利用英国国家统计局的人口预测数据将其转换为发病率。针对乳腺癌和前列腺癌生成了修正数据集。
预计2015年至2035年间男性癌症发病率每年下降0.03%，女性每年上升0.11%；甲状腺癌、肝癌、口腔癌和肾癌是增速最快的癌症类型。预计2035年女性癌症病例数为243690例，男性为270261例。预计2035年乳腺癌和前列腺癌将分别成为女性和男性中最常见的癌症。大多数癌症的死亡率在下降；肝癌、口腔癌和肛门癌的死亡率有显著上升。预计2035年女性死亡95961例，男性死亡116585例。
这些发现强调了继续努力应对癌症风险因素的必要性。此外，医疗规划者应考虑到人口增长和老龄化导致的癌症病例数和死亡数负担增加的情况。
