Gray Rebecca C, Quddus Mohammed A, Evans Andrew
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.
J Safety Res. 2008;39(5):483-95. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2008.07.003. Epub 2008 Sep 26.
Young male drivers are over-represented in traffic accidents; they were involved in 14% of fatal accidents from 1991 to 2003 while holding only 8% of all drivers licenses in the UK. In this study, a subset of the UK national road accident data from 1991 to 2003 has been analyzed. The primary aim is to determine how to best use monetary and progressive resources to understand how road safety measures will reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers in both London and Great Britain.
Ordered probit models were used to identify specific accident characteristics that increase the likelihood of one of three categorical outcomes of accident severity: slight, serious, or fatal.
Characteristics found to lead to a higher likelihood of serious and fatal injuries are generally similar across Great Britain and London but are different from those predicted to lead to a higher likelihood of slight injuries. Those characteristics predicted to lead to serious and fatal injuries include driving in darkness, between Friday and Sunday, on roads with a speed limit of 60 mph, on single carriageways, overtaking, skidding, hitting an object off the carriageway, and when passing the site of a previous accident. Characteristics predicted to lead to slight injuries include driving in daylight, between Monday and Thursday, on roads with a speed limit of 30 mph or less, at a roundabout, waiting to move, and when an animal is on the carriageway.
These results aid the selection of policy options that are most likely to reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers.
年轻男性驾驶员在交通事故中所占比例过高；在1991年至2003年期间，他们虽仅持有英国所有驾照的8%，却涉及14%的致命事故。在本研究中，对1991年至2003年英国国家道路事故数据的一个子集进行了分析。主要目的是确定如何最佳利用资金和渐进性资源，以了解道路安全措施将如何降低伦敦和英国涉及年轻男性驾驶员事故的严重程度。
使用有序概率模型来识别特定的事故特征，这些特征会增加事故严重程度三种分类结果（轻微、严重或致命）之一发生的可能性。
在英国和伦敦，导致严重和致命伤害可能性较高的特征总体相似，但与那些预计会导致轻微伤害可能性较高的特征不同。预计会导致严重和致命伤害的特征包括在夜间、周五至周日期间、限速60英里每小时的道路上、单行道上、超车、打滑、撞到车道外物体以及经过先前事故现场时驾驶。预计会导致轻微伤害的特征包括在白天、周一至周四期间、限速30英里每小时或更低的道路上、在环形交叉路口、等待移动以及有动物在车道上时驾驶。
这些结果有助于选择最有可能降低涉及年轻男性驾驶员事故严重程度的政策选项。
