Centre for Automotive Safety Research, The University of Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Jan;50:768-75. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.028. Epub 2012 Jul 18.
Motor vehicle crashes involving rural drivers aged 75 years and over are more than twice as likely to result in a serious or fatal injury as those involving their urban counterparts. The current study examined some of the reasons for this using a database of police-reported crashes (2004-2008) to identify the environmental (lighting, road and weather conditions, road layout, road surface, speed limit), driver (driver error, crash type), and vehicle (vehicle age) factors that are associated with the crashes of older rural drivers. It also determined whether these same factors are associated with an increased likelihood of serious or fatal injury in younger drivers for whom frailty does not contribute to the resulting injury severity. A number of environmental (i.e., undivided, unsealed, curved and inclined roads, and areas with a speed limit of 100km/h or greater) and driver (i.e., collision with a fixed object and rolling over) factors were more frequent in the crashes of older rural drivers and additionally associated with increased injury severity in younger drivers. Moreover, when these environmental factors were entered into a logistic regression model to predict whether older drivers who were involved in crashes did or did not sustain a serious or fatal injury, it was found that each factor independently increased the likelihood of a serious or fatal injury. Changes, such as the provision of divided and sealed roads, greater protection from fixed roadside objects, and reduced speed limits, appear to be indicated in order to improve the safety of the rural driving environment for drivers of all ages. Additionally, older rural drivers should be encouraged to reduce their exposure to these risky circumstances.
涉及 75 岁及以上农村驾驶员的机动车事故导致严重或致命伤害的可能性是城市驾驶员的两倍多。本研究使用警方报告的事故数据库（2004-2008 年），对一些原因进行了调查，以确定与老年农村驾驶员事故相关的环境（照明、道路和天气条件、道路布局、路面、限速）、驾驶员（驾驶员失误、事故类型）和车辆（车辆年龄）因素。它还确定了这些相同的因素是否与年轻驾驶员严重或致命伤害的可能性增加有关，因为脆弱性不会导致受伤严重程度增加。一些环境（即无分隔、未密封、弯曲和倾斜道路，以及限速为 100km/h 或更高的区域）和驾驶员（即与固定物体碰撞和翻车）因素在老年农村驾驶员的事故中更为常见，并且与年轻驾驶员的伤害严重程度增加有关。此外，当将这些环境因素输入到一个逻辑回归模型中，以预测是否发生事故的老年驾驶员是否遭受严重或致命伤害时，发现每个因素都独立增加了严重或致命伤害的可能性。为了提高所有年龄段驾驶员在农村驾驶环境中的安全性，似乎需要进行一些改变，例如提供分隔和密封的道路、更大程度地保护免受固定路边物体的伤害，以及降低限速。此外，应鼓励老年农村驾驶员减少接触这些危险情况。
