Feng Shumin, Li Zhenning, Ci Yusheng, Zhang Guohui
School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China.
School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China.
Accid Anal Prev. 2016 Jan;86:29-39. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2015.09.025. Epub 2015 Oct 24.
While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers.
虽然公交车通常被认为是一种相对安全的交通方式,但公交车事故,尤其是致命事故所造成的财产损失和人员伤亡绝不容忽视。每个案例中导致司机死亡的原因各不相同,为了提高公交安全性,找出不同类型司机公交致命事故严重程度的潜在风险因素至关重要。本研究通过估计有序逻辑模型,调查了美国不同类型司机公交致命事故严重程度的潜在风险因素。分析数据取自2006 - 2010年美国致命事故涉事公交车(BIFA)数据库。通过计算事故的等效死亡人数将事故分为三个等级,并采用K均值聚类分析将司机分为三个类别。分析表明,一些风险因素对不同类型的司机有相同影响,它们是:(a)季节;(b)星期几;(c)时间段;(d)涉事车辆数量;(e)土地利用;(f)碰撞方式;(g)限速;(h)积雪或结冰路面状况;(i)校车;(j)公交类型和座位容量;(k)司机年龄;(l)司机性别;(m)危险行为;以及(n)约束系统。结果还表明,一些风险因素仅对“有交通违法记录的年轻和年长司机”有影响,它们是:(a)路段类型;(b)每个方向的车道数量;(c)道路纵断面;(d)潮湿路面;以及(e)自行车与公交车事故。值得注意的是,交通违法记录对不同类型的公交司机有不同影响。