Goubar A, Bitar D, Cao W C, Feng D, Fang L Q, Desenclos J C
Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Infectious Diseases Department, Saint Maurice, France.
Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Jul;137(7):1019-31. doi: 10.1017/S0950268808001635. Epub 2008 Dec 15.
The worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) raised questions about the risk of importation of such infection, in particular by air travel. Entry screening was implemented in some countries although poor evidence on its effectiveness is reported. We developed a model to estimate the number of imported SARS cases between regions, using the 2003 SARS epidemic data to apply this model for two scenarios: from Beijing to Frankfurt and from Hong Kong to London. We back-calculated the data to estimate individuals' time of infection and built a model where every individual has a probability of being isolated, of traveling, and of being undetected at arrival. The findings, consistent with what was observed in 2003, suggest that entry screening does not affect the predicted number of imported cases. Inversely, importation depends on the transmission dynamic in the country of origin (including control measures in place) and on the intensity of air travel between regions.
严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）在全球范围内的传播引发了关于此类感染输入风险的问题，尤其是通过航空旅行输入的风险。一些国家实施了入境筛查，尽管有报告称其有效性的证据不足。我们开发了一个模型来估计不同地区之间输入性SARS病例的数量，并利用2003年SARS疫情数据将该模型应用于两种情况：从北京到法兰克福以及从香港到伦敦。我们对数据进行反向推算以估计个体的感染时间，并构建了一个模型，其中每个个体都有被隔离、旅行以及抵达时未被检测出的概率。研究结果与2003年观察到的情况一致，表明入境筛查不会影响预测的输入病例数量。相反，输入情况取决于原产国的传播动态（包括已实施的控制措施）以及不同地区之间航空旅行的强度。
