Reiter Paul
Insects and Infectious Disease Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.
Malar J. 2008 Dec 11;7 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S3. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-7-S1-S3.
Speculations on the potential impact of climate change on human health frequently focus on malaria. Predictions are common that in the coming decades, tens - even hundreds - of millions more cases will occur in regions where the disease is already present, and that transmission will extend to higher latitudes and altitudes. Such predictions, sometimes supported by simple models, are persuasive because they are intuitive, but they sidestep factors that are key to the transmission and epidemiology of the disease: the ecology and behaviour of both humans and vectors, and the immunity of the human population. A holistic view of the natural history of the disease, in the context of these factors and in the precise setting where it is transmitted, is the only valid starting point for assessing the likely significance of future changes in climate.
关于气候变化对人类健康潜在影响的推测常常聚焦于疟疾。常见的预测是，在未来几十年里，在该疾病已经存在的地区将会出现数千万甚至数亿更多的病例，而且传播范围将扩大到更高的纬度和海拔地区。这类预测有时得到简单模型的支持，因其直观而颇具说服力，但它们回避了对该疾病传播和流行病学至关重要的因素：人类和病媒的生态与行为，以及人群的免疫力。在这些因素以及疾病传播的精确环境背景下，对该疾病自然史的全面认识，是评估未来气候变化可能产生的影响的唯一有效出发点。
