Reiter P
Dengue Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, San Juan, Puerto Rico 00920-3860.
Environ Health Perspect. 2001 Mar;109 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):141-61. doi: 10.1289/ehp.01109s1141.
Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence.
全球大气温度目前正处于一个始于250至300年前的变暖阶段。关于持续变暖对人类健康潜在影响的推测往往集中在蚊媒疾病上。基本模型表明，全球气温升高将提高这些疾病的传播速度并扩大其地理范围。然而，疟疾、黄热病和登革热这三种此类疾病的历史表明，气候很少是其流行程度或范围的主要决定因素；人类活动及其对当地生态的影响通常更为重要。因此，使用基于气候的模型来预测未来的流行情况是不合适的。
