Hashizume Masahiro, Wagatsuma Yukiko, Faruque Abu S G, Hayashi Taiichi, Hunter Paul R, Armstrong Ben, Sack David A
Research Center for Tropical Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Sakamoto 1-12-4, Nagasaki City, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan.
J Water Health. 2008 Sep;6(3):323-32. doi: 10.2166/wh.2008.062.
This paper identifies groups vulnerable to the effect of flooding on hospital visits due to diarrhoea during and after a flood event in 1998 in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The number of observed cases of cholera and non-cholera diarrhoea per week was compared to expected normal numbers during the flood and post-flood periods, obtained as the season-specific average over the two preceding and subsequent years using Poisson generalised linear models. The expected number of diarrhoea cases was estimated in separate models for each category of potential modifying factors: sex, age, socio-economic status and hygiene and sanitation practices. During the flood, the number of cholera and non-cholera diarrhoea cases was almost six and two times higher than expected, respectively. In the post-flood period, the risk of non-cholera diarrhoea was significantly higher for those with lower educational level, living in a household with a nonconcrete roof, drinking tube-well water (vs. tap water), using a distant water source and unsanitary toilets. The risk for cholera was significantly higher for those drinking tube-well water and those using unsanitary toilets. This study confirms that low socio-economic groups and poor hygiene and sanitation groups were most vulnerable to flood-related diarrhoea.
本文确定了在1998年孟加拉国达卡洪水期间及之后易受洪水影响而因腹泻前往医院就诊的人群。利用泊松广义线性模型,将洪水期间和洪水过后每周观察到的霍乱和非霍乱腹泻病例数与预期正常数量进行比较,预期正常数量是前两年和后两年特定季节的平均数。针对每一类潜在修正因素(性别、年龄、社会经济地位以及卫生和环境卫生习惯),在单独的模型中估计腹泻病例的预期数量。在洪水期间,霍乱和非霍乱腹泻病例数分别比预期高出近6倍和2倍。在洪水过后,教育水平较低、居住在无混凝土屋顶房屋、饮用管井水(与自来水相比)、使用远处水源和不卫生厕所的人群患非霍乱腹泻的风险显著更高。饮用管井水和使用不卫生厕所的人群患霍乱的风险显著更高。这项研究证实,社会经济地位较低群体以及卫生和环境卫生较差群体最易受与洪水相关的腹泻影响。