Department of Sociology, Duke University, 002 Trent Hall, Box 90408 Durham, NC 27708-0408, USA.
Math Biosci. 2009 Apr;218(2):88-97. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.12.007. Epub 2009 Jan 4.
The results of recent experimental and epidemiological studies provide evidence on the connection between carcinogenesis, cancer progression, and aging. Existing models, however, are traditionally focused only on one of these aspects of health deterioration. In this paper, we derive a new model of cancer, which describes the connection between the ages at disease onset, the duration of disease, and life span of respective individuals. The model combines ideas used in the two hits model of carcinogenesis with those used in the Le Bras multistate model of aging with constant transition intensities. The model is used in the joint analyses of the US demographic mortality data and SEER data for selected cancers. The results show that the developed approach is capable of explaining links among health history data and provides useful insights on mechanisms of cancer occurrence, disease progression, other aging-related changes, and mortality. Further developments of this model are discussed.
最近的实验和流行病学研究结果提供了致癌作用、癌症进展和衰老之间存在关联的证据。然而，现有的模型传统上仅关注健康恶化的一个方面。在本文中，我们推导出了一个新的癌症模型，该模型描述了疾病发病年龄、疾病持续时间和个体寿命之间的关系。该模型结合了致癌作用的两次打击模型和具有恒定转移强度的 Le Bras 多状态衰老模型中使用的思想。该模型用于联合分析美国人口死亡率数据和特定癌症的 SEER 数据。结果表明，所开发的方法能够解释健康史数据之间的联系，并为癌症发生、疾病进展、其他与衰老相关的变化和死亡率的机制提供有用的见解。进一步讨论了该模型的发展。
