Hegazy Y M, Ridler A L, Guitian F J
Veterinary Epidemiology and Public Health Group, Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Oct;137(10):1436-48. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809002301. Epub 2009 Mar 17.
Brucellosis is an important zoonosis in Middle Eastern countries. In this study we assessed the extent of the application of planned official brucellosis control programmes in Kafr El Sheikh governorate, Egypt and we used a stochastic simulation model to assess the probable impact of changes to the official control strategy on the dynamics of small-ruminant brucellosis. Our results show that <7% of female livestock were tested in any given year in the study area and that quarantine was not consistently applied to infected herds. Simulation results revealed the inability of the applied control measures to reduce the prevalence of small-ruminant brucellosis. Given our assumptions, the intensity with which infected animals are removed under the actual levels of implementation of test-and-slaughter programmes would permit brucellosis to remain endemic at a level >8% of the sheep and goat population.
布鲁氏菌病是中东国家一种重要的人畜共患病。在本研究中，我们评估了埃及卡夫尔谢赫省官方布鲁氏菌病防控计划的实施程度，并使用随机模拟模型评估官方防控策略的变化对小反刍动物布鲁氏菌病动态的可能影响。我们的结果表明，在研究区域内，任何给定年份接受检测的雌性家畜不到7%，且未对感染畜群始终如一地实施检疫。模拟结果显示，所采取的防控措施无法降低小反刍动物布鲁氏菌病的流行率。根据我们的假设，在实际实施检测和扑杀计划的水平下，扑杀感染动物的力度将使布鲁氏菌病在绵羊和山羊种群中以超过8%的水平保持地方流行状态。
