斯洛文尼亚一项新的国家酒精政策实施后自杀死亡率的下降：一项中断时间序列分析。
Reduction in suicide mortality following a new national alcohol policy in Slovenia: an interrupted time-series analysis.
作者信息
Pridemore William Alex, Snowden Aleksandra J
机构信息
Indiana University, Department of Criminal Justice, 302 Sycamore Hall, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2009 May;99(5):915-20. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2008.146183. Epub 2009 Mar 19.
OBJECTIVES
We assessed the impact on suicide mortality of a new national policy in Slovenia that limits the availability of alcohol.
METHODS
We obtained monthly total, male, and female suicide counts in Slovenia between January 1997 and December 2005 and then employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) techniques to model the effect of the alcohol policy (implemented in March 2003).
RESULTS
There was a significant decrease in the total number of monthly suicides following the policy's implementation. Subsequent analyses revealed this association to be caused solely by the impact on male suicides. Specifically, there was an immediate and permanent reduction of 3.6 male suicides per month (95% confidence interval = -0.4, -6.9), or approximately 10% of the preintervention average. The policy had no statistically significant effect on female suicides.
CONCLUSIONS
Our results show the effectiveness of this specific policy in reducing male suicides in Slovenia and also hint at the potential of public policy in reducing the public health burden of alcohol-related harm more generally.
目的
我们评估了斯洛文尼亚一项限制酒精供应的新国家政策对自杀死亡率的影响。
方法
我们获取了1997年1月至2005年12月斯洛文尼亚每月的自杀总数、男性自杀数和女性自杀数，然后采用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）技术来模拟酒精政策（2003年3月实施）的效果。
结果
政策实施后，每月自杀总数显著下降。后续分析表明，这种关联完全是由对男性自杀的影响所致。具体而言，每月男性自杀数立即且永久性减少了3.6例（95%置信区间 = -0.4，-6.9），约占干预前平均水平的10%。该政策对女性自杀没有统计学上的显著影响。
结论
我们的结果表明了这项具体政策在降低斯洛文尼亚男性自杀率方面的有效性，也暗示了公共政策在更广泛地减轻与酒精相关伤害的公共卫生负担方面的潜力。
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