Gigerenzer G, Hoffrage U, Kleinbölting H
Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford, California.
Psychol Rev. 1991 Oct;98(4):506-28. doi: 10.1037/0033-295x.98.4.506.
Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensive framework, the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory). The theory (a) explains both the overconfidence effect (mean confidence is higher than percentage of answers correct) and the hard-easy effect (overconfidence increases with item difficulty) reported in the literature and (b) predicts conditions under which both effects appear, disappear, or invert. In addition, (c) it predicts a new phenomenon, the confidence-frequency effect, a systematic difference between a judgment of confidence in a single event (i.e., that any given answer is correct) and a judgment of the frequency of correct answers in the long run. Two experiments are reported that support PMM theory by confirming these predictions, and several apparent anomalies reported in the literature are explained and integrated into the present framework.
迄今为止，关于人们对自身常识的信心的研究产生了两种相当稳定的效应、许多不一致的结果，且没有全面的理论。我们提出了这样一个全面的框架，即概率心理模型理论（PMM理论）。该理论（a）解释了文献中报道的过度自信效应（平均信心高于正确答案的百分比）和难易效应（过度自信随题目难度增加），并且（b）预测了这两种效应出现、消失或反转的条件。此外，（c）它预测了一种新现象，即信心-频率效应，即在对单个事件的信心判断（即任何给定答案是正确的）与对长期正确答案频率的判断之间存在系统差异。报告了两个实验，通过证实这些预测来支持PMM理论，并且解释了文献中报道的几个明显异常现象并将其纳入当前框架。
