Department of Psychology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-6005, USA.
J Youth Adolesc. 2009 Mar;38(3):440-53. doi: 10.1007/s10964-008-9324-5. Epub 2008 Aug 19.
The current study modeled trajectories of substance use from ages 15 to 20 among 1,095 male serious juvenile offenders (M age = 16.54; 42% African-American, 34% Latino, 20% European-American, and 4% other ethnic/racial backgrounds) and prospectively predicted trajectories from risk and protective factors before and after controlling for time spent in a supervised setting. Results indicated that supervised time suppressed age-related growth in substance use. Trajectories of offenders with no supervised time and low levels of supervised time increased in substance use across age, whereas offenders with high levels of supervised time showed no growth. Almost all risk and protective factors had effects on initial substance use but only adolescent history of substance use, impulse control, and psychosocial maturity had an effect on change in substance use over time. Findings highlight the importance of formal sanctions and interventions superimposed on normal developmental processes in understanding trajectories of substance use among serious juvenile offenders.
本研究通过对 1095 名男性严重少年犯（M 年龄=16.54；42%为非裔美国人，34%为拉丁裔，20%为欧洲裔美国人，4%为其他族裔/种族背景）从 15 岁到 20 岁的物质使用轨迹进行建模，并从风险和保护因素的角度进行了前瞻性预测，这些因素在控制了监督环境中的时间投入后进行了预测。结果表明，监督时间抑制了与年龄相关的物质使用增长。没有监督时间和监督时间水平低的罪犯的物质使用轨迹随着年龄的增长而增加，而监督时间水平高的罪犯则没有增长。几乎所有的风险和保护因素都对初始物质使用有影响，但只有青少年时期的物质使用史、冲动控制和心理社会成熟度对物质使用随时间的变化有影响。研究结果强调了正式制裁和干预措施在理解严重少年犯物质使用轨迹中的重要性，这些措施叠加在正常的发展过程之上。
