Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
Psychol Health Med. 2009 Aug;14(4):430-42. doi: 10.1080/13548500902890103.
Past research suggests that semantic and numerical medical risk descriptors may lead to miscommunication and misinterpretation of risk. However, little research has been conducted on systematic features of this bias, and the resulting potential risks to people contemplating or receiving treatment. Three studies explore the influence of verbal versus numerical medical risk descriptions. In Study 1a, San Francisco Bay area residents (N = 59) were presented with semantic descriptors for low-likelihood events and reported their perceived quantitative risk for the events. In Study 1b, undergraduates (N = 29) were presented with semantic versus numerical information about side effects for a prescribed medication and reported their perceived risk and adherence intentions. In Study 1c, San Francisco Bay area residents (N = 125) were presented with semantic versus numerical information about their risk for a disease and reported their perceived risk and intention to adhere to a prescribed treatment. The results of the first study suggest that people systematically overestimate the likelihood of low probability events described in semantic terms such as "low risk" or "people may occasionally experience." The results of the second and third experiment suggest that presenting semantic information about the risks of engaging in a new behavior makes people less likely to engage in that behavior, whereas presenting semantic information about the risks of not engaging in a new behavior makes people more likely to engage in the behavior. The decision to present semantic versus probabilistic information is tantamount to a decision about whether to encourage risk acceptance versus risk avoidance.
过去的研究表明，语义和数值医学风险描述符可能导致风险的沟通和误解。然而，对于这种偏见的系统特征以及对正在考虑或接受治疗的人的潜在风险，研究甚少。三项研究探讨了口头和数值医学风险描述对风险感知的影响。在研究 1a 中，旧金山湾区居民（N=59）接受了低可能性事件的语义描述，并报告了他们对这些事件的感知定量风险。在研究 1b 中，大学生（N=29）接受了关于处方药物副作用的语义和数值信息，并报告了他们的感知风险和遵从意图。在研究 1c 中，旧金山湾区居民（N=125）接受了关于他们患病风险的语义和数值信息，并报告了他们的感知风险和遵医嘱治疗的意图。第一项研究的结果表明，人们系统地高估了用“低风险”或“人们偶尔可能会经历”等语义术语描述的低概率事件的可能性。第二和第三项实验的结果表明，呈现关于从事新行为风险的语义信息会降低人们从事该行为的可能性，而呈现关于不从事新行为风险的语义信息会增加人们从事该行为的可能性。呈现语义信息还是概率信息的决定相当于关于鼓励风险接受还是风险回避的决策。
