Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute for Landscape System Analysis, Eberswalder Strasse 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany.
Int J Biometeorol. 2010 May;54(3):231-41. doi: 10.1007/s00484-009-0274-8. Epub 2009 Oct 23.
Statistical analysis of bud break data for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cvs. Riesling and Müller-Thurgau) at 13 sites along the northern boundary of commercial grapevine production in Europe revealed that, for all investigated sites, the heat summation method for bud break prediction can be improved if the starting date for the accumulation of heat units is specifically determined. Using the coefficient of variance as a criterion, a global minimum for each site can be identified, marking the optimum starting date. Furthermore, it was shown that the application of a threshold temperature for the heat summation method does not lead to an improved prediction of bud break. Using site-specific parameters, bud break of grapevine can be predicted with an accuracy of +/- 2.5 days. Using average parameters, the prediction accuracy is reduced to +/- 4.5 days, highlighting the sensitivity of the heat summation method to the quality and the representativeness of the driving temperature data.
对欧洲商业葡萄种植北界 13 个地点的葡萄（Vitis vinifera L. cvs. Riesling 和 Müller-Thurgau）芽期数据进行的统计分析表明，对于所有调查的地点，如果专门确定用于积累热量单位的起始日期，芽期预测的热量总和方法可以得到改进。使用方差系数作为标准，可以为每个地点确定一个全局最小值，标记最佳起始日期。此外，还表明应用热量总和方法的阈值温度不会提高芽期的预测精度。使用特定于地点的参数，可以以 +/- 2.5 天的精度预测葡萄的芽期。使用平均参数，预测精度降低至 +/- 4.5 天，突出了热量总和方法对驱动温度数据的质量和代表性的敏感性。
