NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.
Science. 2009 Oct 30;326(5953):716-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1174760.
Evaluating multicomponent climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone, and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. We calculated atmospheric composition changes, historical radiative forcing, and forcing per unit of emission due to aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions in a coupled composition-climate model. We found that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions. In particular, methane emissions have a larger impact than that used in current carbon-trading schemes or in the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, assessments of multigas mitigation policies, as well as any separate efforts to mitigate warming from short-lived pollutants, should include gas-aerosol interactions.
评估多组分气候变化缓解策略需要了解排放的各种直接和间接影响。甲烷、臭氧和气溶胶通过大气化学相互关联,因此单一污染物的排放会影响多种物种。我们在一个耦合的成分-气候模型中计算了气溶胶和对流层臭氧前体排放引起的大气成分变化、历史辐射强迫以及每单位排放的强迫。我们发现,气体-气溶胶相互作用大大改变了各种排放的相对重要性。特别是,甲烷排放的影响比当前的碳交易计划或《京都议定书》中使用的影响更大。因此,多气体缓解政策的评估,以及任何单独缓解短寿命污染物变暖的努力,都应包括气体-气溶胶相互作用。