Stop TB Department, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland.
Clin Chest Med. 2009 Dec;30(4):621-36, vii. doi: 10.1016/j.ccm.2009.08.017.
Tuberculosis (TB) ranks second only to human immunodeficiency virus as a cause of death from an infectious agent (1.77 million deaths from TB in 2007). Global targets for reductions in the epidemiologic burden of TB have been set for 2015 and 2050 within the context of the Millennium Development Goals and the Stop TB Partnership. Achieving these targets is the focus of national and international efforts in TB control, and demonstrating whether or not they are achieved is of major importance. This article discusses: the methods used by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of TB; estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for 2007, combined with assessment of progress toward the 2015 targets for reductions in these indicators based on trends since 1990 and projections up to 2015; trends in TB notifications and case detection rates; and prospects for elimination of TB by 2050.
结核病（TB）是仅次于人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的传染病死因（2007 年有 177 万人死于结核病）。全球范围内设定了在千年发展目标和遏制结核病伙伴关系框架下，到 2015 年和 2050 年降低结核病流行负担的目标。实现这些目标是国家和国际结核病控制工作的重点，展示这些目标是否已经实现非常重要。本文讨论了：世界卫生组织用于估计全球结核病负担的方法；2007 年发病率、患病率和死亡率的估计数，以及根据 1990 年以来的趋势和到 2015 年的预测，对减少这些指标的 2015 年目标进展情况的评估；结核病报告和病例检出率的趋势；以及到 2050 年消除结核病的前景。
