Wang Jun, Liu Xiu-Mei, Zhang Zhi-Qiang
National Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2009 Jun;43(6):478-81.
To evaluate the risk of liver cancer attributed to dietary aflatoxins exposure in Chinese residents.
Mathematics model and "Margin of Exposure (MOE)" methods were employed in this study. The data used in mathematics model came from Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) and the detection results of hepatitis B virus ( HBV) indicator in Chinese residents' blood sample in 2004. The data used in MOE model came from animal experiments, the fourth nutrition and health investigation among Chinese residents, and national inspection network for food contaminations.
Mathematics model indicated that for those people who were exposed to aflatoxins at average level (665.43 ng/d), the liver cancer incidence rate resulting from aflatoxins exposure was 0.4033 per 100 thousand person years. For those people who were exposed to aflatoxins at a high level (97.5 percentile, 24 787.20 ng/d) the liver cancer incidence rate attributed to aflatoxins exposure was 15.0215 per 100 thousand person years. Results from the MOE method showed that for the people in whole country, urban and rural areas who were exposed to aflatoxins at average level (0.011 09, 0.008 13 and 0.012 49 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively), the MOE values for aflatoxins to cause liver cancer were 9017.1, 12 304.7 and 8006.4 respectively. For those people who were exposed to aflatoxins at a high level (97.5 percentile, 0.413 10, 0.289 30 and 0.489 50 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively), the MOE values for aflatoxins to cause liver cancer were 242.1, 345.7 and 204.3 for whole country, urban and rural areas, respectively.
For the people whose dietary aflatoxins exposure at average level, the risk of liver cancer attributed to aflatoxins is middle. For the people whose dietary aflatoxins exposure at high level, this kind of risk should be high.
评估中国居民膳食黄曲霉毒素暴露导致肝癌的风险。
本研究采用数学模型和“暴露边际（MOE）”方法。数学模型中使用的数据来自联合国粮农组织/世界卫生组织食品添加剂联合专家委员会（JECFA）以及2004年中国居民血样中乙肝病毒（HBV）指标的检测结果。MOE模型中使用的数据来自动物实验、中国居民第四次营养与健康调查以及国家食品污染监测网络。
数学模型表明，对于平均暴露于黄曲霉毒素水平（665.43纳克/天）的人群，黄曲霉毒素暴露导致的肝癌发病率为每10万人年0.4033例。对于高暴露水平（第97.5百分位数，24787.20纳克/天）的人群，黄曲霉毒素暴露导致的肝癌发病率为每10万人年15.0215例。MOE方法的结果显示，对于全国、城市和农村地区平均暴露于黄曲霉毒素水平（分别为0.01109、0.00813和0.01249微克·千克⁻¹·天⁻¹）的人群，黄曲霉毒素导致肝癌的MOE值分别为9017.1、12304.7和8006.4。对于高暴露水平（第97.5百分位数，分别为0.41310、0.28930和0.48950微克·千克⁻¹·天⁻¹）的人群，全国、城市和农村地区黄曲霉毒素导致肝癌的MOE值分别为242.1、345.7和204.3。
对于膳食黄曲霉毒素平均暴露水平的人群，黄曲霉毒素导致肝癌的风险为中等。对于膳食黄曲霉毒素高暴露水平的人群，这种风险较高。
