Ding Xiaoxia, Wu Linxia, Li Peiwu, Zhang Zhaowei, Zhou Haiyan, Bai Yizhen, Chen Xiaomei, Jiang Jun
Oil Crops Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science, Wuhan 430062, China.
Laboratory of Quality & Safety Risk Assessment for Oilseed Products (Wuhan), Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430062, China.
Toxins (Basel). 2015 Oct 15;7(10):4157-74. doi: 10.3390/toxins7104157.
Based on the 2983 peanut samples from 122 counties in six provinces of China's Yangtze River ecological region collected between 2009-2014, along with the dietary consumption data in Chinese resident nutrition and health survey reports from 2002 and 2004, dietary aflatoxin exposure and percentiles in the corresponding statistics were calculated by non-parametric probability assessment, Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap sampling methods. Average climatic conditions in the Yangtze River ecological region were calculated based on the data from 118 weather stations via the Thiessen polygon method. The survey results found that the aflatoxin contamination of peanuts was significantly high in 2013. The determination coefficient (R²) of multiple regression reflected by the aflatoxin B₁ content with average precipitation and mean temperature in different periods showed that climatic conditions one month before harvest had the strongest impact on aflatoxin B₁ contamination, and that Hunan and Jiangxi provinces were greatly influenced. The simulated mean aflatoxin B₁ intake from peanuts at the mean peanut consumption level was 0.777-0.790 and 0.343-0.349 ng/(kg·d) for children aged 2-6 and standard adults respectively. Moreover, the evaluated cancer risks were 0.024 and 0.011/(100,000 persons·year) respectively, generally less than China's current liver cancer incidence of 24.6 cases/(100,000 persons·year). In general, the dietary risk caused by peanut production and harvest was low. Further studies would focus on the impacts of peanut circulation and storage on aflatoxin B₁ contamination risk assessment in order to protect peanut consumers' safety and boost international trade.
基于2009年至2014年在中国长江生态区六个省份122个县采集的2983份花生样本，以及2002年和2004年中国居民营养与健康调查报告中的膳食消费数据，采用非参数概率评估、蒙特卡罗模拟和自助抽样方法计算了膳食黄曲霉毒素暴露量及相应统计数据中的百分位数。基于118个气象站的数据，通过泰森多边形法计算了长江生态区的平均气候条件。调查结果发现，2013年花生的黄曲霉毒素污染显著偏高。黄曲霉毒素B₁含量与不同时期平均降水量和平均温度的多元回归决定系数（R²）表明，收获前一个月的气候条件对黄曲霉毒素B₁污染的影响最大，湖南和江西两省受影响较大。在平均花生消费水平下，2至6岁儿童和标准成年人从花生中模拟摄入的黄曲霉毒素B₁平均量分别为0.777 - 0.790和0.343 - 0.349纳克/（千克·天）。此外，评估的癌症风险分别为每10万人年0.024和0.011，总体上低于中国目前肝癌发病率每10万人年24.6例。总体而言，花生生产和收获造成的膳食风险较低。未来的研究将聚焦于花生流通和储存对黄曲霉毒素B₁污染风险评估的影响，以保障花生消费者的安全并促进国际贸易。
