Duesberg P H
Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1991 Feb 15;88(4):1575-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.88.4.1575.
The newly defined syndrome AIDS includes 25 unrelated parasitic, neoplastic, and noninfectious indicator diseases. Based on epidemiological correlations, the syndrome is thought to be due to a new, sexually or parenterally transmitted retrovirus termed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The following epidemiological data conflict with this hypothesis. (i) Noncorrelations exist between HIV and AIDS; for example, the AIDS risks of infected subjects vary greater than 10-fold with their gender or country. Abnormal health risks that are never controlled as independent AIDS causes by AIDS statistics, such as drug addiction and hemophilia, correlate directly with an abnormal incidence of AIDS diseases. Above all, the AIDS diseases occur in all risk groups in the absence of HIV. (ii) American AIDS is incompatible with infectious disease, because it is almost exclusively restricted to males (91%), because if it occurs, then only on average 10 years after transfusion of HIV, because specific AIDS diseases are not transmissible among different risk groups, and because unlike a new infectious disease, AIDS has not spread exponentially since the AIDS test was established and AIDS received its current definition in 1987. (iii) Epidemiological evidence indicates that HIV is a long-established, perinatally transmitted retrovirus. HIV acts as a marker for American AIDS risks, because it is rare and not transmissible by horizontal contacts other than frequent transfusions, intravenous drugs, and repeated or promiscuous sex. It is concluded that American AIDS is not infectious, and suggested that unidentified, mostly noninfectious pathogens cause AIDS.
新定义的艾滋病综合征包括25种不相关的寄生虫病、肿瘤病和非感染性指示疾病。基于流行病学关联，该综合征被认为是由一种新的、通过性传播或非肠道传播的逆转录病毒引起的，这种病毒被称为人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）。以下流行病学数据与这一假设相矛盾。（i）HIV与艾滋病之间不存在关联；例如，受感染个体患艾滋病的风险因性别或国家的不同而相差10倍以上。一些异常的健康风险，如药物成瘾和血友病，这些在艾滋病统计中从未被作为独立的艾滋病病因加以控制，但却与艾滋病疾病的异常发病率直接相关。最重要的是，在没有HIV的情况下，艾滋病疾病在所有风险群体中都有发生。（ii）美国的艾滋病不符合传染病的特征，因为它几乎完全局限于男性（91%），因为如果它发生的话，通常是在输入HIV后平均10年才出现，因为特定的艾滋病疾病在不同风险群体之间是不可传播的，而且与一种新的传染病不同，自1987年艾滋病检测建立以及艾滋病获得当前定义以来，艾滋病并没有呈指数级传播。（iii）流行病学证据表明，HIV是一种早已存在的、通过母婴传播的逆转录病毒。HIV是美国艾滋病风险的一个标志物，因为它很罕见，除了频繁输血、静脉注射毒品以及反复或滥交性行为之外，不会通过水平接触传播。结论是美国的艾滋病不具有传染性，并提出未查明的、大多为非传染性的病原体导致了艾滋病。
