Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninsky Prospect 33, Office 319, 119071 Moscow, Russia.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2009 Nov;1181:161-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.04827.x.
The most recent forecast by international agencies predicted there would be between 9,000 and 28,000 fatal cancers between 1986 and 2056, obviously underestimating the risk factors and the collective doses. On the basis of I-131 and Cs-137 radioisotope doses to which populations were exposed and a comparison of cancer mortality in the heavily and the less contaminated territories and pre- and post-Chernobyl cancer levels, a more realistic figure is 212,000 to 245,000 deaths in Europe and 19,000 in the rest of the world. High levels of Te-132, Ru-103, Ru-106, and Cs-134 persisted months after the Chernobyl catastrophe and the continuing radiation from Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu, and Am will generate new neoplasms for hundreds of years.
国际机构最近的预测显示,在 1986 年至 2056 年间,将会有 9000 至 28000 例致命癌症,显然低估了风险因素和集体剂量。根据人群接触到的 I-131 和 Cs-137 放射性同位素剂量,以及对污染严重和污染较轻地区癌症死亡率的比较,以及切尔诺贝利事故前后癌症水平的比较,更现实的数字是,欧洲将有 212000 至 245000 人死亡,世界其他地区将有 19000 人死亡。在切尔诺贝利灾难发生数月后,Te-132、Ru-103、Ru-106 和 Cs-134 的水平仍然很高,而 Cs-137、Sr-90、Pu 和 Am 的持续辐射将在数百年内产生新的肿瘤。