Division of Cancer Epidemiology, McGill University, 546 Pine Avenue West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Am J Epidemiol. 2010 Jan 15;171(2):164-8. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwp392. Epub 2009 Dec 10.
Epidemiologists are well aware of the negative consequences of measurement error in exposure and outcome variables to their ability to detect putative causal associations. However, empirical proof that remedying the misclassification problem improves estimates of epidemiologic effect is seldom examined in detail. Of all areas in cancer epidemiology, perhaps the best example of the consequences of misclassification and of the steps taken to circumvent them was the pursuit, beginning in the mid-1980s, of the human papillomavirus (HPV) infection-cervical cancer association. The stakes were high: Had the wrong conclusions been reached epidemiologists would have been led astray in the search for competing hypotheses for the sexually transmissible agent causing cervical cancer or in ascribing to HPV infection a mere ancillary role among many lifestyle, hormonal, and environmental factors. The article by Castle et al. in this issue of the Journal (Am J Epidemiol. 2010;171(2):155-163) provides a detailed account of the joint influences of improved HPV and cervical precancer measurements in gradually unveiling the strong magnitude of the underlying association between viral exposure and cervical lesion risk. In this commentary, the authors extend the findings of Castle et al. by providing additional empirical evidence in support of their arguments.
流行病学家非常清楚,在暴露和结果变量的测量误差会对他们发现潜在因果关系的能力产生负面影响。然而,很少有实证证据详细检验纠正分类错误问题是否能改善流行病学效应的估计。在癌症流行病学的所有领域中,也许分类错误的后果以及为避免这些错误而采取的步骤最好的例子是,从 20 世纪 80 年代中期开始,人们一直在研究人乳头瘤病毒(HPV)感染与宫颈癌之间的关联。风险很高:如果得出错误的结论,那么在寻找导致宫颈癌的性传播病原体的竞争假设时,或者在将 HPV 感染仅仅归因于许多生活方式、激素和环境因素中的一个辅助因素时,流行病学家就会误入歧途。卡斯尔等人在本期《美国流行病学杂志》(Am J Epidemiol. 2010;171(2):155-163)上发表的文章详细描述了 HPV 和宫颈癌前病变测量方法的改进的共同影响,逐渐揭示了病毒暴露与宫颈病变风险之间的强烈关联。在这篇评论中,作者通过提供额外的实证证据支持他们的论点,扩展了卡斯尔等人的研究结果。