Bulpitt Christopher J, Antikainen Riitta L, Markowe Hugh L J, Shipley Martin J
Section of Care of the Elderly, Imperial College, London.
Curr Aging Sci. 2009 Dec;2(3):193-9. doi: 10.2174/1874609810902030193.
Measures of biological age have not been proven to predict mortality. This study examines whether measuring biological age improves the prediction of mortality.
Prospective study from 1981 to 2001 of 397 male London Civil Servants. Two indices of biological ageing were calculated.
60 men died and both indices of biological ageing were related to survival. In a model that mutually adjusted for both chronological and biological age, biological age using index one was statistically significant with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.11 per year of age (95% confidence interval 1.01 - 1.21, P=0.03). The useful components of the measures of biological ageing were systolic blood pressure (HR 1.31 for 1SD), albumin, and, to a lesser degree, Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR). Greying of the hair, skin inelasticity, arcus senilis, and baldness were not predictors of mortality as measured by our methods. Similarly serum cholesterol, creatinine, calcium and urate could be excluded. A modified index was developed including systolic pressure, ESR, urea, albumin, and bilirubin and had a sensitivity of 78% and specificity of 51% in predicting subjects who died.
This study represents 'proof of principle' in demonstrating the utility and validity of measuring biological age. The modified index needs to be tested prospectively.
生物学年龄的测量方法尚未被证实可预测死亡率。本研究旨在探讨测量生物学年龄是否能改善对死亡率的预测。
对1981年至2001年间397名伦敦男性公务员进行前瞻性研究。计算了两个生物学衰老指标。
60名男性死亡，两个生物学衰老指标均与生存率相关。在一个同时对实际年龄和生物学年龄进行相互调整的模型中，使用指标一的生物学年龄具有统计学意义，年龄每增加一岁的风险比（HR）为1.11（95%置信区间1.01 - 1.21，P = 0.03）。生物学衰老测量指标中有用的成分包括收缩压（每增加1个标准差的HR为1.31）、白蛋白，以及程度较轻的红细胞沉降率（ESR）。按照我们的测量方法，头发变白、皮肤弹性下降、角膜老年环和秃头并不是死亡率的预测指标。同样，血清胆固醇、肌酐、钙和尿酸也可被排除。开发了一个改良指标，包括收缩压、ESR、尿素、白蛋白和胆红素，在预测死亡受试者方面，其灵敏度为78%，特异性为51%。
本研究为证明测量生物学年龄的实用性和有效性提供了“原理证明”。改良指标需要进行前瞻性测试。
