Instituto de Biología, Universidad de Antioquia, Sede de Investigaciones Universitarias, SIU, Medellín, Colombia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2009 Dec;6(12):3040-55. doi: 10.3390/ijerph6123040. Epub 2009 Dec 2.
Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Medellín, the second largest Colombian city, and surrounding municipalities. We used DF case and satellite environmental data to investigate conditions associated with suitable areas for DF occurrence in 2008 in three municipalities (Bello, Medellín and Itagüí). We develop spatially stratified tests of ecological niche models, and found generally good predictive ability, with all model tests yielding results significantly better than random expectations. We concluded that Bello and Medellín present ecological conditions somewhat different from, and more suitable for DF than, those of Itagüí. We suggest that areas predicted by our models as suitable for DF could be considered as at-risk, and could be used to guide campaigns for DF prevention in these municipalities.
登革热（DF）在哥伦比亚第二大城市麦德林及其周边城市流行。我们使用 DF 病例和卫星环境数据，调查了 2008 年在三个城市（贝洛、麦德林和伊塔圭伊）发生 DF 的适宜地区的相关条件。我们对生态位模型进行了空间分层检验，发现具有良好的预测能力，所有模型检验的结果都明显优于随机预期。我们得出的结论是，贝洛和麦德林的生态条件与伊塔圭伊略有不同，且更适合 DF。我们建议，我们的模型预测为适合 DF 的地区可以被视为高危地区，并可用于指导这些城市的 DF 预防运动。
