Decision Sciences, INSEAD, Singapore 138676.
Psychol Rev. 2010 Jan;117(1):243-55. doi: 10.1037/a0017884.
This article presents a dual system model (DSM) of decision making under risk and uncertainty according to which the value of a gamble is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the affective and deliberative systems. On the basis of research on dual process theories and empirical research in Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) and Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) among others, the DSM incorporates (a) individual differences in disposition to rational versus emotional decision making, (b) the affective nature of outcomes, and (c) different task construals within its framework. The model has good descriptive validity and accounts for (a) violation of nontransparent stochastic dominance, (b) fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, (c) ambiguity aversion, (d) common consequence effect, (e) common ratio effect, (f) isolation effect, and (g) coalescing and event-splitting effects. The DSM is also used to make several novel predictions of conditions under which specific behavior patterns may or may not occur.
本文提出了一种风险和不确定性下决策的双重系统模型（DSM），根据该模型，赌博的价值是由情感系统和理性系统分别赋予它的值的组合。基于双重加工理论的研究和 Hsee 和 Rottenstreich（2004 年）以及 Rottenstreich 和 Hsee（2001 年）等人的实证研究，DSM 纳入了（a）理性与情感决策倾向的个体差异，（b）结果的情感性质，以及（c）在其框架内的不同任务构建。该模型具有良好的描述有效性，并解释了（a）违反不透明随机优势，（b）四重风险态度模式，（c）模糊厌恶，（d）共同后果效应，（e）共同比率效应，（f）隔离效应，以及（g）凝聚和事件分裂效应。DSM 还被用于对某些特定行为模式可能出现或不出现的条件做出一些新颖的预测。
