Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne and Enteric Diseases, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, 3150 Rampart Road, Foothills Campus, Fort Collins, CO 80522, USA.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2010 Jan;82(1):95-102. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0247.
Within the United States, the majority of human plague cases are reported from New Mexico. We describe climatic factors involved in intra- and inter-annual plague dynamics using animal-based surveillance data from that state. Unlike the clear seasonal pattern observed at lower elevations, cases occur randomly throughout the year at higher elevations. Increasing elevation corresponded with delayed mean time in case presentation. Using local meteorological data (previous year mean annual precipitation, total degrees over 27 degrees C 3 years before and maximum winter temperatures 4 years before) we built a time-series model predicting annual case load that explained 75% of the variance in pet cases between years. Moreover, we found a significant correlation with observed annual human cases and predicted pet cases. Because covariates were time-lagged by at least 1 year, intensity of case loads can be predicted in advance of a plague season. Understanding associations between environmental and meteorological factors can be useful for anticipating future disease trends.
在美国，大多数人间鼠疫病例报告来自新墨西哥州。我们使用该州基于动物的监测数据描述了与鼠疫在年内和年际动态相关的气候因素。与较低海拔地区观察到的明显季节性模式不同，较高海拔地区的病例全年随机发生。海拔升高与病例呈现的平均时间延迟有关。使用当地气象数据（前一年的平均年降水量、27°C 以上的总度数，以及前 4 年的冬季最高温度），我们建立了一个时间序列模型，预测每年的病例数，解释了宠物病例年度差异的 75%。此外，我们发现与观察到的年度人类病例和预测的宠物病例之间存在显著相关性。由于协变量至少滞后 1 年，因此可以在鼠疫季节之前提前预测病例负荷的强度。了解环境和气象因素之间的关联对于预测未来的疾病趋势可能很有用。
