School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, China.
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Front Public Health. 2023 Jan 5;10:1018327. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1018327. eCollection 2022.
and are regarded to be representative plague vectors in the United States. The incidence of plague is rising globally, possibly due to climate change and environmental damage. Environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of plague vectors.
Maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) were utilized to predict the distributions of these two fleas and their trends into the future. The main environmental factors influencing the distribution of these two fleas were analyzed. A risk assessment system was constructed to calculate the invasion risk values of the species.
Temperature has a significant effect on the distribution of the potentially suitable areas for and . They have the potential to survive in suitable areas of China in the future. The risk assessment system indicated that the risk level for the invasion of these two species into China was moderate.
In order to achieve early detection, early interception, and early management, China should perfect its monitoring infrastructure and develop scientific prevention and control strategies to prevent the invasion of foreign flea vectors.
和 被认为是美国有代表性的鼠疫媒介。鼠疫的发病率在全球呈上升趋势，这可能是由于气候变化和环境破坏。温度和降水等环境因素对鼠疫媒介的时空分布有重大影响。
利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测这两种跳蚤及其未来趋势的分布。分析了影响这两种跳蚤分布的主要环境因素。构建了风险评估系统来计算物种的入侵风险值。
温度对 和 的潜在适宜区分布有显著影响。它们有可能在未来存活于中国的适宜地区。风险评估系统表明，这两个物种入侵中国的风险水平为中等。
为了实现早期检测、早期拦截和早期管理，中国应完善监测基础设施，制定科学的防控策略，防止外来跳蚤媒介的入侵。
