Department of Medical Informatics, National Defense Medical College Hospital, Saitama, Japan.
Euro Surveill. 2010 Jan 7;15(1):19455. doi: 10.2807/ese.15.01.19455-en.
We simulated the early phase of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic and assessed the effectiveness of public health interventions in Japan. We show that the detection rate of border quarantine was low and the timing of the intervention was the most important factor involved in the control of the pandemic, with the maximum reduction in daily cases obtained after interventions started on day 6 or 11. Early interventions were not always effective.
我们模拟了 2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行的早期阶段，并评估了日本公共卫生干预措施的效果。我们表明，边境检疫的检出率较低，干预的时机是控制大流行的最重要因素，在第 6 天或第 11 天开始干预后，每日病例数的减少达到最大值。早期干预并不总是有效。
