American University, Department of Public Administration & Policy, School of Public Affairs, 4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW, 336 Ward Circle Building, Washington, DC 20016, USA.
Demography. 2009 Nov;46(4):695-715. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0072.
A number of studies have shown that teenagers who abstain from sex are more likely to graduate from high school and attend college than their sexually active peers. However it is unclear whether this association represents a causal relationship or can be explained by unmeasured heterogeneity. We employ a variety of statistical techniques to distinguish between these hypotheses, using data on females from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Our results provide evidence that delaying first intercourse leads to an increased likelihood of graduating from high school. This relationship appears to be strongest among respondents in the bottom third of the ability distribution. Controlling for fertility reduces, but does not eliminate, the estimated effect of delaying intercourse.
一些研究表明，比起有性行为的青少年，不进行性行为的青少年更有可能从高中毕业并上大学。然而，目前尚不清楚这种关联是否代表因果关系，或者是否可以用未测量的异质性来解释。我们使用国家青少年健康纵向研究中关于女性的数据，采用多种统计技术来区分这些假设。我们的研究结果表明，推迟首次性行为会增加高中毕业的可能性。在能力分布最低三分之一的受访者中，这种关系似乎最为强烈。控制生育率虽然降低了，但并没有消除推迟性行为对估计效果的影响。
