Molecular changes associated with altered patterns of norovirus outbreak epidemics in Victoria, Australia, in 2006 to 2007.

Noroviruses (NoVs) are now considered the most common cause of outbreaks of nonbacterial gastroenteritis, but the factors which control the incidence of NoVs are poorly understood. In 2006, the pattern of NoV outbreak epidemics in Victoria, Australia, changed compared to the pattern for 2002 to 2005 and 2007. This study examined molecular correlates of the changed NoV periodicity. For the period of 2002 to 2007, 8,507 fecal specimens from 1,495 gastroenteritis outbreaks were tested for NoV by reverse transcription-PCR, and 1,018 NoV outbreaks were identified. Nucleotide sequence analysis was used to define genotypes and GII.4 variants. For 2002 to 2007, GII.4 was the predominant genotype. For the period of 2002 to 2005 and 2007, a single NoV outbreak epidemic occurred in warmer months of each year, but in 2006 two epidemics occurred in 1 year, one in colder months and one in warmer months of the year. For 2002 to 2007, four major GII.4 variants, "2002 Oxford/Farmington Hills," "2004 Hunter," "2006a," and "2006b," were identified. Each NoV outbreak epidemic was linked principally to one of these four variants, and there was a time link, a delay of 2 to 6 months, between the first detection of a GII.4 variant and the first outbreak epidemic in which it was the principal variant. The unusual 2006 pattern of outbreak epidemics can then be correlated with the appearance of two GII.4 variants within a short space of time, resulting in two outbreak epidemics in a short space of time, i.e., in the 1 year. This study provides a potentially greater ability to predict the characteristics of NoV epidemics.